Africa is facing a potential economic hit of $10-$20 billion due to an impending “super” El Niño, according to the African Development Bank’s top climate expert. The El Niño weather pattern, which often drives severe droughts, flooding, and storms in Africa, could become one of the strongest ever seen if current Pacific Ocean warming trends continue.
The threat to food and water security, government finances, and banking sectors could be significant, with disasters potentially damaging infrastructure and leaving cash-strapped countries struggling to repay connected loans. Anthony Nyong, the AfDB’s director for climate change and green growth, estimates that the event could reduce heavily affected countries’ GDP by 1 percent to 2 percent on average.
This reduction would translate to a $10-$20 billion hit across the continent. The AfDB’s most recent forecasts in May predicted Africa as a whole would see 4.2 percent economic growth this year, rising to 4.4 percent in 2027, assuming the US-Israeli war on Iran eases.
Economic forecasts were made before predictions of a “super” or “Godzilla” El Niño were made. Nyong’s estimate of the likely hit is the first given by a major multilateral development bank in relation to El Niño. He warned that it was unlikely to be a one-off event, with drought conditions potentially persisting in the Sahel region.
Mozambique’s experiences after Cyclone Idai in 2019 show that it can take years to recover from major storms. Governments are also getting snared in what Nyong described as the “climate finance trap”, where they lack the resources to respond to crises and are forced to raid health, education, or infrastructure budgets to meet the costs.
The 2023 to 2024 El Niño event caused severe drought in Southern Africa and heavy rains and flooding in East Africa, leading to widespread crop failures, surging food prices, and record-breaking sea-level spikes along the continent’s coastlines. Africa’s farmers are already facing nearly $330 million in lost income this year.
The AfDB’s response to El Niño is set to ramp up, with a bank-wide “seminar” in September to assess the potential impact on both planned and existing investments. Nyong said the bank stands ready to restructure projects to help countries manage El Niño’s impacts and will work with them to tap additional multilateral support, such as the Green Climate Fund.
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Other possible help could come from the Adaptation Fund, Climate Investment Funds, and newer loss-and-damage financing mechanisms. An October report from the United Nations estimated that by 2035, developing countries will collectively need around $365 billion in a year to tackle climate change, yet international public adaptation finance was just $26 billion in 2023.
Nyong said Africa will now need as much as $100 billion this year, given the expected El Niño strength. The climate adaptation finance need was already about $50 billion, but this adds another $30-$50 billion to that, he said.
Humanitarian pressures will add to the problems, with the bank identifying Sudan, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi, and even Nigeria as countries that could face particularly severe impacts. When this El Niño comes, there is going to be mass migration, Nyong said, adding that the price of maize—a key food staple in many affected countries—was expected to double.
The resulting resource shortages and competition for grazing land and water could exacerbate existing fragility in vulnerable regions, Nyong said, with agricultural losses seen at around $327 million and fisheries productivity set to fall 1 percent to 4 percent. All of which signal that Africa will need more action to build up resilience before disasters strike.
It is cheaper to build a fence around a precipice than to pay for expensive ambulances to wait at the bottom for people to fall, Nyong said. So, let’s build a fence, he added, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to mitigate the effects of climate change.
Africa needs to invest in garment industry skills to boost its economy and reduce the impact of climate change.
The bank’s efforts to support affected countries will be key in helping them recover from the effects of El Niño. Nyong’s statement highlights the need for proactive measures to mitigate the effects of climate change.
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